I said two weeks ago that the market will fight when releases earnings began to risk-averse. the focal point was to shift with financial news and I suspect conditions could get ugly.
This past week, new home sales fell to the lowest rate on record. Those who rejected 12,4% in 276,000 units. Existing Homes sell is less than the cost of manufacturing and manufacturers do not Rub tow nickels together until the stocks are reduced.Yesterday, existing home sales fell to a record low. Housing is critical to our economy and our 50% of the increase in employment was related to this area from 2001 to 2005. Opinion on the importance of this statistic.
Durable goods orders fell before two months and analysts were expecting an increase. 5. Rose orders.2%, but if you get rid of transport will be decreased 3.8%. More importantly, if you get rid of the aircraft and non-defense orders, the durable goods fell by 8% last month. This is often used as a proxy to measure business costs and consequences are bleak.
Unemployment is a major concern and this figure has jumped dramatically over the past three weeks. I think that last month of the PDO in the private sector employment was a fluke. Companies are not going to add to the wage during these uncertain times.Public jobs continue to decline as State and local governments struggle to balance budgets. analysts Projecting 485,000 new requirements. If you come near this number, the report of unemployment horrible next week. Curiously, the consensus estimate for a drop of 120,000 jobs. I believe that the opportunity for a surprise on the downside.
Q2 GDP were released. This is the first revision and analysts expect to drop from 2.4% to 1.4%.Stocks have been restored and consumer confidence is low. More than 70% of our GDP comes from expenditure and retailers have reduced their guidance. the Fed has reduced GDP forecasts for 2010 and despite the fact that the reduction is priced, the actual release could still adversely affect psychological.
The wildcard in all this is a credit crisis. Yesterday, the market tanked 5% in Ireland and last week, the Greek bond yields jumped. If pops up the fear, the decline of the market could be serious.
Almost closed window scaling to put positions. Next week, either your own or your will is wishing you had some outside, once the sale starts, it is difficult to jump to. Premiums, bid/ask spreads widen and emotions run high; it is like trying to find refuge in the middle of a storm.
Front number scary initial claims, I believe that traders will error on the side of caution and dump stocks close. If failed SPY 105 today, selling pressure will mount heading into the weekend.
Write and receive extensive market analysis plus two selection and distribution.
No comments:
Post a Comment